Global Outlook Q3 2017: Nearing a peak

Risk assets have benefitted from an extended period of synchronised global growth and ultra-loose monetary policy. There are signs now that this is ending. Despite cyclical risks, still healthy underlying corporate and economic fundamentals and banking sector balance sheets should stave off recession and allow the credit cycle to extend further. In this report we summarise our macro and market views, look at key threats to the credit cycle, and highlight lead indicators we think may help investors get ahead of the next downturn.

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